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通过对乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川水文断面实测径流量与气象数据进行相关性统计,分析不同时间尺度下径流变化的主要影响因素,建立四种径流模型,并通过比较不同模型间的差异定性分析不同气象因素对径流变化的贡献,可得出以下结论:1)在日尺度上,径流变化受气温影响最大,其次是太阳辐射和相对湿度;旬、月尺度上,影响径流的主要因素仍为气温,其他因素的影响较小;夏季尺度上,气温和降水共同影响径流的变化。2)对于日径流模拟,其低值和波动趋势能够得到较好的模拟,但峰值部分模拟不够,相关系数为0.71,标准误差为2.37mm;旬、月和夏季径流模拟精度比日尺度有明显提高,相关系数分别为0.79,0.83和0.80。以上结论可为长时间序列冰川径流的动态变化模拟和监测提供科学参考。
Through the correlation statistics between the measured runoff and meteorological data of glacier hydrological section of Heyuan No. 1 in Urumqi, the main influencing factors of runoff change under different time scales are analyzed, and four runoff models are established. By qualitative analysis of different meteorological patterns The following conclusions can be drawn from the contribution of factors to runoff changes: 1) On the daily scale, the runoff variation is the most affected by temperature, followed by solar radiation and relative humidity; on the monthly and monthly scales, the main factors that affect runoff are still temperature, The impact of other factors is small. On the summer scale, temperature and precipitation together affect the change of runoff. 2) For the daily runoff simulation, the low value and the trend of fluctuation can be simulated well, but the peak value is not enough, the correlation coefficient is 0.71 and the standard error is 2.37mm. The accuracy of runoff simulation in ten, Increase, the correlation coefficient is 0.79,0.83 and 0.80 respectively. The above conclusions can provide a scientific reference for the simulation and monitoring of long-term glacier runoff dynamic changes.