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在反垄断审查中一个重要的问题是,某一特定行业是否存在市场势力及其造成的社会福利损失有多大。本文基于NEIO方法采用2002~2011年电信业省际面板数据,实证估算了电信业的市场竞争结构、市场势力及其对社会福利损失的大小。研究结果发现,中国电信业具有较高的市场势力,并验证了电信业高度合谋的市场结构;通过改进了的哈伯格福利损失三角模型,估算了2002~2011年电信业因市场势力导致的社会福利损失高达4709.82亿元,约占行业总收入的6.81%。这表明进一步对垄断行业促进竞争的改革,将有利于增进社会福利。
An important question in antitrust scrutiny is whether market forces exist in a particular industry and how much social welfare losses they cause. Based on the NEIO method, this paper uses provincial panel data of telecom industry from 2002 to 2011, and empirically estimates the market competition structure, market power and the loss to social welfare of telecom industry. The results show that China’s telecom industry has higher market forces and verified the highly constricted market structure of the telecom industry. Based on the improved Haarleigh welfare loss triangle model, the author estimates that the telecom industry was affected by market forces from 2002 to 2011 Social welfare losses as high as 470.982 billion yuan, accounting for 6.81% of the total industry revenue. This shows that further reforms to promote competition in monopoly industries will help promote social welfare.