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针对流域土地利用变化所引起的径流空间变异问题,论文以太湖上游西苕溪流域为例,基于SWAT模型(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模拟的不同土地利用情景下月尺度径流过程,通过GWR模型(Geographically weighted regression)在空间上定量评估了土地利用/覆被变化对流域径流过程的影响。结果表明:径流变化在流域空间分布上存在一定非平稳性,其与子流域内面积变化较大的土地利用类型相关性显著,其中城镇用地影响最大,林草地和耕地影响次之。径流变化对城镇用地的空间响应关系表现为由上游到下游逐渐增强,而对林草地和耕地的响应关系表现为从流域上游到下游逐渐减弱。对比发现,多因子GWR模型相对于单因子GWR模型更适合综合分析径流对土地利用/覆被变化的空间响应关系。
Aiming at the spatial variation of runoff caused by land use change in the basin, the paper takes the Xitiaoxi catchment in the upper reaches of Taihu Lake as an example. Based on the monthly scale runoff of different land use scenarios simulated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) weighted regression to quantitatively assess the impact of land use / cover change on runoff in a watershed. The results show that there is a certain non-stationarity in the spatial distribution of runoff, which is significantly correlated with the land use types with large changes in the sub-catchment area, of which the urban land use is the most important, followed by the grassland and cultivated land. The spatial response of runoff change to urban land use showed a gradual increase from upstream to downstream, while the response to forest, grassland and farmland showed a gradual decline from upstream to downstream. The comparison shows that the multi-factor GWR model is more suitable than the single-factor GWR model for the comprehensive analysis of the spatial response of land use / cover change.