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虽然今年因去杠杆的力度较大而可能带来一定的负面冲击,但在外需态势好转的背景下,今年中国的经济增长可能会好于预期。2008年全球金融危机的爆发,使得一度对净出口依赖较高的中国经济受到了沉重打击,也促使中国经济模式在后几年从过多依靠外需逐步向内需拉动转变。不过,中国在全球范围内的出口竞争力并未下降。而从今年以来的情况看,中国出口或将持续好转,净出口有望再度成为支持中国经济的新亮点。
Although this year’s de-leveraging efforts may bring some negative impacts, the economic growth in China this year may be better than expected in the context of the improvement in external demand. The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 made a heavy blow to the Chinese economy, which once had a high dependence on net exports. It also urged the Chinese economic model to gradually shift its internal needs from excessive dependence on external demand in the coming years. However, China’s export competitiveness in the world has not declined. From this year’s situation, China’s exports will continue to improve, and the net export is expected to once again become a new bright spot in China’s economy.