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中国当前经济发展既受到国内资源供给和环境容量的制约,又受到全球应对气候变化的严峻挑战,碳排放空间的不足将成为经济社会发展的刚性约束。论文界定了碳排放效率的内涵,基于随机前沿模型,对山西省1995年-2010年的碳排放效率进行了测算,并且与中部其他省份碳排放效率进行了比较分析。该方法引入随机扰动项克服了宏观统计数据不可避免存在噪声的问题,从而使得碳排放效率评价更为贴切。主要结论是:山西省1995年-2010年的碳排放效率在中部六省中效率最低,且碳排放效率呈逐年降低的趋势。在对效率作出评价基础上,论文进一步基于模拟退火算法创建了万元GDP二氧化碳排放量的预测模型,对山西省“十二五”规划提出的“2015年山西省万元地区生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2010年下降17%”的碳减排目标进行了可达性分析,结论为不可达。论文最后提出了相应的政策建议,即在保障国家能源安全的同时,实施“以煤为基、循环高端、多元发展”的路径,实现经济的低碳转型。
China’s current economic development is not only constrained by domestic resource supply and environmental capacity, but also poses a severe challenge to the global response to climate change. The shortage of carbon emissions will become a rigid constraint on economic and social development. The dissertation defines the connotation of carbon emission efficiency. Based on the stochastic frontier model, the carbon emission efficiency in Shanxi Province from 1995 to 2010 was estimated and compared with the carbon emission efficiency in other provinces in Central China. This method introduces a stochastic perturbation term to overcome the problem of unavoidable noise in macroeconomic statistics, so that the carbon emission efficiency evaluation is more appropriate. The main conclusion is that the efficiency of carbon emission in Shanxi Province from 1995 to 2010 is the lowest among six provinces in Central China, and the carbon emission efficiency is decreasing year by year. Based on the evaluation of the efficiency, the paper further builds a forecast model of carbon dioxide emission of 10,000 yuan GDP based on the simulated annealing algorithm. Based on the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” proposed by Shanxi Province in 2015, the total production of 10,000 yuan in Shanxi Province Reachability analysis of carbon emission reduction targets with a 17% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions over 2010 “concludes as” unreachable “. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations, that is, to implement the ”coal-based, recycling high-end, diversified development" path while realizing the national energy security and realizing a low-carbon economy transformation.