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上海地处长三角地区,地势低平,潮滩与湿地广布,未来海平面上升加剧的风暴潮灾害、咸水入侵等灾害,将给该地区的社会经济发展带来巨大损失。应用情景模拟法和脆弱性评估法来评估上海市河口海岸地区的脆弱性,定量化研究了2030年和2050年海平面上升、地面沉降和风暴潮灾害的情景下的威胁区域。到2030年和2050年海平面将分别上升86.6mm和185.6mm,中心城区的地面沉降将达0.87~60.29cm和1.56~108.52cm,上海市将面临类似9711号台风的威胁。在此情景以及现有的防灾基础之上,对上海市河口海岸地区进行脆弱性评估。结果表明应对风暴潮最脆弱的地区是黄浦江两岸的低洼地区。在类似9711台风的影响下,2030年上海的脆弱性指数相对较低,主要脆弱区域集中在奉贤和南汇的交界处、崇明县的横沙岛和长兴岛以及黄浦江两岸的低洼地区,此时,暴露于0.5m以上的人口为62万人,占总人口的1.86%,经济损失为1 152、1 372、1 632亿元(分别在经济增速为8%、9%、10%的情景下),占全市国内生产总值的1.5%;2050年,上海市脆弱性急剧升高,脆弱性区域扩大35.46%,分布面积十分广泛,在类似9711号台风的影响下,暴露于0.5m以上的人口达到748万人,占总人口的21.66%,经济损失将高达105 581、151 248、215 959亿元(分别在经济增速为8%、9%、10%的情景下),占全市国内生产总值的29.6%。这些结果应当引起有关部门对于未来海平面上升潜在影响的警惕。
Located in the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai is characterized by low topography, widespread tidal flats and wetlands, and storm surges and salt water intrusion that are exacerbated by rising sea levels in the future. This will bring enormous losses to the socio-economic development of the region. Scenarios and Vulnerability Assessments were used to assess the vulnerability of the estuarine and coastal areas in Shanghai and to quantitatively study the threatened areas in the scenarios of sea level rise, land subsidence and storm surge disasters in 2030 and 2050. By 2030 and 2050, the sea level will rise by 86.6mm and 185.6mm respectively. The land subsidence in the downtown area will reach 0.87 ~ 60.29cm and 1.56 ~ 108.52cm. Shanghai will face the threat of a typhoon 9771. Based on this scenario and the existing disaster preparedness, a vulnerability assessment of the estuarine and coast region of Shanghai is conducted. The results show that the most vulnerable area to deal with the storm surge is the low-lying areas on both banks of the Huangpu River. Under the influence of the 9711 typhoon, Shanghai’s vulnerability index was relatively low in 2030. The main vulnerable areas were at the junction of Fengxian and Nanhui, Hengsha Island and Changxing Island in Chongming County, and low-lying areas on both banks of the Huangpu River , The population exposed to more than 0.5m is 620,000, accounting for 1.86% of the total population, with an economic loss of 1,152,178,1,632 billion yuan (8%, 9% and 10% of the economic growth respectively ), Accounting for 1.5% of the city’s GDP. In 2050, the vulnerability of Shanghai Municipality increased sharply, the area of vulnerability expanded by 35.46%, and the area of distribution was very wide. Under the influence of similar typhoon 9711, it was exposed to more than 0.5m Of the total population of 748 million, accounting for 21.66% of the total population, the economic loss will be as high as 105,581,151,248,215.95 billion yuan (respectively, under the circumstances of economic growth of 8%, 9%, 10%), accounting for the city 29.6% of GDP. These results should alert the authorities on the potential impact of future sea-level rise.