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期货市场是国际粮价向中国粮食市场传导的最重要路径之一,为分析这种传导影响,选取芝加哥期货市场的CBOT大豆、CBOT玉米、CBOT小麦代表国际期货市场价格,大连商品交易所黄大豆2号和玉米、郑州商品交易所的强麦代表国内期货市场价格为研究对象,进行协整分析、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解。研究发现,国内外粮食期货市场存在协整关系,但并不存在Granger因果关系,不能很好地解释彼此的变化,这主要可能是由于国内期货市场不完善等因素造成的。期货定价是国际大宗商品最重要的定价方式之一,既要完善期货等金融市场,争夺粮食定价权,又要完善市场监管,警惕国际金融市场对我国粮食安全的威胁与挑战。
Futures market is one of the most important routes for the international grain price to the Chinese grain market. To analyze the transmission effect, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn and CBOT wheat from the Chicago futures market are selected to represent the international futures market prices. Dalian Commodity Exchange 2 and corn, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on behalf of the National Futures Market price of ale, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The study found that there exists cointegration relationship between the domestic and foreign grain futures markets, but there is no Granger causality, which can not explain each other’s changes well. This may be mainly due to factors such as the imperfection of the domestic futures market. Futures pricing is one of the most important pricing methods for international commodities. It is necessary to improve futures markets and other financial markets, compete for food pricing rights, and improve market supervision, so as to guard against the threats and challenges that international financial markets have to China’s food security.