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未来战略环境分析是正确制定装备发展战略的前提条件.提出了基于情景的武器装备发展战略环境分析方法.方法分三阶段:首先通过识别未来战略环境动力因素及其输出,构建未来战略环境空间;其次主观评价因素输出之间的相容性,在此基础上根据建立的目标规划模型计算情景概率;最后根据情景相容性指标和情景概率选择合理情景集合,并对合理情景集合进行分簇.以某类装备发展战略环境分析为例,说明了方法的可行性和有效性.
The future strategic environment analysis is a prerequisite for the correct development of equipment development strategy.A scenario-based strategic environment analysis method for weaponry development is proposed.The method is divided into three stages: First, the future strategic environment space is constructed by identifying the dynamic factors and outputs of future strategic environment; Secondly, according to the compatibility of output of subjective evaluation factors, the probability of scenario is calculated based on the established target programming model. Finally, the reasonable scenario set is selected according to the scene compatibility index and the scenario probability, and the reasonable scenario set is clustered. Taking the analysis of the strategic environment for the development of certain equipment as an example, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are illustrated.