论文部分内容阅读
目的预测浙江省乙型肝炎发病趋势,为卫生工作的决策和防病治病提供科学的依据。方法根据浙江省2004—2009年乙型肝炎发病率,建立GM(1,1)模型,进行预测研究。结果预测结果显示,浙江省2010—2011年乙型肝炎发病率分布为60.78/10万和56.84/10万。浙江省2010—2011年乙型肝炎的发病率呈下降趋势,提示乙肝防控工作成效明显,应继续落实各项防控措施。结论预测模型精度检验Δ=0.027,C=0.27,P=1,外推预测较精确。
Objective To predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Zhejiang Province and provide a scientific basis for decision making and disease prevention and treatment of health work. Methods According to the incidence of hepatitis B in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2009, a GM (1,1) model was established to predict the incidence. Results The prediction results showed that the incidence of hepatitis B in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2011 was 60.78 / 100000 and 56.84 / 100000. The incidence of hepatitis B in Zhejiang Province in 2010-2011 shows a decreasing trend, which indicates that the prevention and control of hepatitis B has achieved remarkable results. Various prevention and control measures should be continued. Conclusion Prediction model accuracy test Δ = 0.027, C = 0.27, P = 1, extrapolation prediction more accurate.