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通过运用Karras建立的产出增长率和通货膨胀模型,采用向量自回归VAR框架,分析经济开放度对我国货币政策效果的影响。回归结果表明,无论是以M0作为货币政策的测度指标,还是以M1作为货币政策的测度指标,它们都反映出:在长期,经济开放度的提高会削弱货币政策的有效性;但从短期来看,经济开放度的提高不一定会削弱货币政策的有效性,有时反而会提高货币政策的有效性。
By using the output growth rate and inflation model established by Karras, the paper uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework to analyze the effect of economic openness on the effect of monetary policy in our country. The regression results show that whether M0 is the measure of monetary policy or M1 as the measure of monetary policy, they all reflect that in the long run, the increase of economic openness will weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy. However, in the short run Judging from the fact that the improvement of the degree of economic openness will not necessarily weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy, it may at some time increase the effectiveness of monetary policy.