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虽然目前全球的石油生产供过于求 ,但从长远的观点来看 ,石油资源势必要越来越少 ,逐步走向枯竭。然而 2 0 0 0年还是值得石油业乐观的 ,美国的油价和天然气价格预计将会达到＄ 2 2～＄ 2 6和＄ 3 0～ 3 5。石油价格的动荡不仅仅是由市场的供求规律决定的 ,而主要取决于政治局势以及主要的石油输出国的生产能力 ,所以要站在全球的角度 ,纵观市场和国际形势做出准确的短期预测 ,是非常重要的 ,这决定着石油公司的生死存亡。石油价格可以说是左右着一口井、一个油田乃至一个国家的生产活动 ,脱离实际的低油价和脱离实际的高油价一样 ,都影响着石油经济体制的健康发展 ,所以一方面我们要寻求一种转变以摆脱价格这种不正常的受控状况 ,另一方面积极开发油田新技术 ,使世界上的大油田、老油田达到峰值产量 ,减缓其产量下滑的速度。文中还就油 /汽价格、能源消费和储量、能源消耗以及独立生产者的重要作用方面给予了评述。
Although there is an oversupply of oil production in the world at present, from the long-term point of view, the petroleum resources are bound to be less and less and will gradually be depleted. However, the oil industry is still optimistic in 2000, and the U.S. oil and natural gas prices are expected to reach between $ 2 2 and $ 30 and $ 30 to 35 respectively. The turmoil in oil prices is not determined by the law of supply and demand in the market, but mainly depends on the political situation and the productive capacity of the major oil-exporting countries. Therefore, it is necessary to take a global perspective and take an accurate short-term view of the market and the international situation Prediction is very important, which determines the life and death of oil companies. Oil prices can be said to be about a well, an oil field and even a country’s production activities, from the actual low oil prices and the actual high oil prices are the same, affecting the healthy development of the oil economy, so on the one hand we have to find a Shift away from such an abnormally controlled price situation and, on the other hand, actively develop new oilfield technologies to bring peak production to large oil fields and old oil fields in the world and to slow the decline of their output. The paper also commented on the important role of oil / gas prices, energy consumption and reserves, energy consumption and independent producers.