无风险利率在整个金融市场中发挥着核心作用,在国外许多金融发达国家,都有一种利率作为金融市场运行的基准利率。如美国的联邦基金利率FFR、英国的LIBOR利率、欧盟的EURIBOR、日本的TIBOR等等。与这些国家不同,中国尚处于利率市场化推进阶段,还没有一个统一的基准利率,其利率市场也较之其他金融发达国家呈现出极其复杂的结构。在中国,研究和实践领域通常利用国债的价格来确定无风险利率。针对目前分割的利率市场,本文选取了交易所国债市场做为研究对象并利用传导机制分析来研究宏观经济变量对国债价格的影响,最后运用了Granger因果模型对提出的四种传导机制进行了实证检验分析。 Risk-free interest rates play a central role in the entire financial market, and in many foreign financially developed countries, there is a rate that serves as the benchmark for the functioning of the financial markets. Such as the United States federal funds rate FFR, the United Kingdom LIBOR rate, the EU EURIBOR, Japan’s TIBOR and so on. Unlike these countries, China is still in the process of marketization of interest rates and has not had a unified benchmark interest rate. Its interest rate market also shows an extremely complicated structure compared with other financially developed countries. In China, research and practice often use the price of government bonds to determine a risk-free rate. In view of the current divided interest rate market, this paper selects the exchange bond market as the research object and uses the conduction mechanism analysis to study the impact of macroeconomic variables on the national debt price. At last, the Granger causality model is used to test the four proposed conduction mechanisms Test analysis