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基于Krugman“地理本性论”原理,构建了包含旅游资源禀赋、旅游区位与市场、商业基础条件、旅游政策四大要素的区域旅游投资潜力评价指标体系。在地理信息系统和地理计算模型支持下,分析了主要指标间的机理关系,计算了全国地级及以上行政区的观光、休闲和综合旅游投资潜力指数。研究发现:(1)观光和休闲投资潜力空间分布形态有明显差异。前者呈现相对破碎化、离散化的态势,而后者呈现更为明显的地域规律性,原因是优质观光景观的发育具有较大随机性,而休闲旅游受自然资源禀赋影响较大,在空间上具有较强连续性和自相关性。(2)旅游投资潜力空间分异显著。东部、中部、西部、东北逐次递减,五大城市群旅游投资潜力明显高于其他区域,且大部分城市群休闲投资潜力高于观光,预示着旅游产业发达地区的旅游活动正由观光转型为休闲。
Based on the principle of Krugman ’s “geographical nature”, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of regional tourism investment potentials including tourism resource endowment, tourism location and market, business conditions and tourism policy. With the support of Geographic Information System and Geographic Computing Model, the paper analyzes the mechanism of the main indicators and calculates the investment potential index of tourism, leisure and integrated tourism at prefecture level and above. The findings are as follows: (1) The spatial distribution patterns of tourism and leisure investment have obvious differences. The former shows a relatively fragmented and discretized situation, while the latter shows a more obvious regional regularity due to the greater randomness of the development of high-quality tourist attractions. Leisure tourism is greatly influenced by natural resource endowments and has the characteristics of spatial Strong continuity and autocorrelation. (2) Significant spatial differentiation of tourism investment potential. The eastern, central, western and northeastern provinces have successively decreased. The tourism investment potentials of the five major urban agglomerations are obviously higher than those of other regions. And the leisure investment potential of most urban agglomerations is higher than that of sightseeing, indicating that the tourist activities in developed areas of the tourism industry are being transformed from sightseeing to leisure.