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在定性分析内蒙古地区能源组成结构基础上,选取该地区1995-2012年能源统计数据建立广义灰色关联及预测模型。结果显示,内蒙古地区煤炭与总能源的生产、消费关联程度远远高于石油、天然气、水电核电及其他能源发电三种能源,煤炭在提升能源生产及消费总量中起主导作用。运用灰色预测模型G M(1,n)预测1995-2012年内蒙地区能源消费总量与煤炭消费量,检验结果表明能源消费总量预测模型与煤炭消费量预测模型精度很高。运用该模型预测2020年内蒙古地区能源消费总量将达到61006万吨标准煤、煤炭消费量将达到34977万吨标准煤。建议:积极转变能源工业发展模式,调整能源消费结构,提升清洁能源消费比例;大力发展循环经济;淘汰落后产能,积极调整产业结构。
Based on the qualitative analysis of energy composition in Inner Mongolia, generalized gray correlation and prediction models are selected based on energy statistics from 1995 to 2012 in this region. The results show that the correlation between production and consumption of coal and total energy in Inner Mongolia is much higher than that of oil, natural gas, hydropower and other energy generation. Coal plays a leading role in boosting the total energy production and consumption. The gray prediction model G M (1, n) is used to predict the total energy consumption and coal consumption in Inner Mongolia during 1995-2012. The test results show that the prediction models of total energy consumption and coal consumption are highly accurate. The model predicts that the total energy consumption in Inner Mongolia will reach 6100.6 million tons of standard coal in 2020, and the coal consumption will reach 349.77 million tons of standard coal. Suggestions: Actively change the mode of energy industry development, adjust energy consumption structure and increase the proportion of clean energy consumption; vigorously develop the circular economy; eliminate backward production capacity and actively adjust the industrial structure.