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〖基金视野〗经济增长放缓增强通胀回落预期在政府调控下,经济出现大幅波动的概率不大(南方)。经济增速在持续放缓,未来是继续紧缩还是开始放松仍不明朗,紧缩政策很难放松,房地产调控政策仍将延续(博时)。在货币持续紧缩和总需求放缓的背景下,通胀这个慢性病的阶段性缓解还是大概率事件;6-7月之际再加一次息是市场的一致预期,政策调整的关键时间窗口在6月底7月初,短期政策是否会超调尚需观察。需求放缓的程度,目前来看还是可控的
[Fund Perspective] slowdown in economic growth and increase inflation is expected to fall under the government regulation, the probability of a sharp economic fluctuations (South). Economic growth continues to slow down, the future is to continue to tighten or start to relax is still unclear, tightening policy is difficult to relax, real estate control policies will continue. In the context of continued monetary tightening and the slowdown in aggregate demand, the phased alleviation of inflation, the chronic disease, is still a high probability event; the revaluation of the market between June and July is the consensus expectation of the market. The key time window for policy adjustment is at the end of June In early July, whether short-term policies will overshoot needs to be observed. The extent of the slowdown is still manageable now