针对完成载人航天工程交会对接的关键分系统-对接机构分系统,提出了基于概率风险评价(PRA)可靠性评估方法,包括事件链建模、底事件可靠性评估、贝叶斯分析和蒙特卡罗仿真分析等方法。利用该方法能够针对对接机构的对接与分离过程建模,并综合利用对接机构试验与仿真、部件与组件等不同渠道、不同层次的可靠性数据,得到更贴近实际的可靠性评估结果。 Aiming at the key subsystem of docking system-docking system, the method of reliability assessment based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is proposed, which includes event chain modeling, reliability assessment of bottom events, Bayesian analysis and Monte-Carlo Carlo simulation analysis and other methods. The method can be used to model the docking and separation process of the docking mechanism and to obtain the reliability evaluation results that are more realistic and practical by comprehensively utilizing the reliability data of the testing and simulation of the docking mechanism, components and components, and different levels.