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本文利用1985～2006年的宏观经济数据,根据协整理论建立误差修正模型,从中国对外直接投资、外商直接投资两方面,对与贸易之间相互关系进行了计量分析。对外直接投资与进出口贸易存在长期稳定关系,短期均衡关系显著,且进出口贸易与对外直接投资有单向因果关系;外商直接投资是进出口贸易的格兰杰因果关系,两者之间存在较强的互补关系,外商直接投资对国际贸易具有促进作用。
Based on the macroeconomic data from 1985 to 2006, this paper establishes the error correction model according to the cointegration theory, and makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship with trade from two aspects of China’s foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment. There is a long-term stable relationship between foreign direct investment and import and export trade, with a significant short-term equilibrium and a one-way causal relationship between import and export trade and foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment is the Granger causality between import and export trade. Strong complementary relationship, foreign direct investment in promoting the role of international trade.