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目的:研究我国东、中、西部不同经济类型区域经济社会发展与卫技人员配置变化规律,为优化卫生资源配置及决策提供方法学实证依据。方法:利用我国东、中、西部不同类型区域经济发展、人口规模及卫技人员配置数量的21年历史数据,探索构建ARIMA与多重线性回归组合模型,并进行预测拟合分析。结果:1986—2008年不同区域卫技人员实际值与预测值的拟合度较好,预测精度高。结论:ARIMA组合模型综合设计考虑了除时间综合变量之外不同区域经济社会发展对卫技人员总量的需求影响,适用性强,具有可行性及合理性。
Objective: To study the law of economic and social development and the distribution of health professionals in different economic regions in east, middle and west China, and to provide empirical evidence for the optimization of health resource allocation and decision-making. Methods: Based on 21-year historical data of economic development, population size and the number of health professionals in different regions of eastern, central and western China, ARIMA and multiple linear regression model were explored and constructed, and the predictive fit analysis was carried out. Results: In 1986-2008, the fitting accuracy of actual value and forecast value of medical technicians in different regions was good and the prediction precision was high. Conclusion: The comprehensive design of ARIMA portfolio model considers the impact of economic and social development in different regions on the total demand of health professionals in addition to the comprehensive variables of time. It is feasible and reasonable for applicability.