应用灰色系统理论和方法，通过关联分析，可确定影响城市区域环境噪声变化的优势因素是人口因素和机动车辆因素，即主要噪声源为生活源和交通源．利用ＧＭ（１，１）模型，可对哈尔滨市未来五年的环境噪声变化进行预测．残差分析表明，短期预测精度很高，残差低于±０．２％． By using the gray system theory and method, the correlation analysis shows that the predominant factors influencing the change of environmental noise in urban areas are population factors and motor vehicle factors, that is, the main noise sources are living sources and traffic sources. Using GM (1,1) model, we can forecast the change of environmental noise in Harbin in the next five years. Residuals analysis shows that the short-term prediction accuracy is very high with the residual less than ± 0.2%.