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货物快运班列在全国的开行满足了全路零散货物的运输需求,但也带来了种种问题。为解决这些问题,引入时间可靠度这一量化指标来刻画货物快运班列的时效性特征。通过收集、去噪、分析大量的现场数据,借助神经网络模型拟合车站停留时间可靠度与其四个影响因素的影响作用函数。结合货物快运班列时间可靠度计算结果的数据分析,指出造成货物快运班列时间可靠度不理想的制约因素以及货物快运班列运营过程中存在的不足,提出提高时间可靠度的系列措施。
Freight express train in the country’s opening to meet the transport needs of fragile goods throughout the road, but also brought a variety of problems. In order to solve these problems, the quantification index of time reliability is introduced to characterize the timeliness of freight express train. By collecting, de-noising and analyzing a large amount of field data, the neural network model is used to fit the influence function of station residence time reliability and its four influencing factors. Based on the data analysis of time reliability of freight express trains, the paper pointed out the restrictive factors that caused the unsatisfactory time reliability of freight express trains and the shortcomings in the operation of freight express trains, and proposed a series of measures to improve the time reliability.