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为了改进以确定供给与确定需求为基础的传统交通网络设计方案,根据双层规划理论与交通分配理论,建立了基于随机供给与随机需求的离散交通网络设计模型。将Monte Carlo模拟、遗传算法和交通分配算法应用于模型求解过程,并应用Nguyen-Dupuis交通网络求解模型。计算结果表明:当OD需求增大时,总走行时间增大;当建设预算增大时,总走行时间下降;当供给与需求均不确定时,增加建设预算对降低总走行时间的效果更加明显;在不同工况下,总走行时间最大值为1.69×105 h,最小值为8.89×104 h;当OD需求均值为350veh.h-1,建设预算从1 000万元增大到1 500万元,且供给确定时,总走行时间下降3.47%。供给与需求的不确定程度对交通网络的设计方案具有重要影响。
In order to improve the traditional transportation network design scheme based on the supply and demand determination, according to the theory of bi-level programming and traffic assignment theory, a discrete traffic network design model based on stochastic supply and stochastic demand is established. The Monte Carlo simulation, genetic algorithm and traffic assignment algorithm are applied to the model solving process. The Nguyen-Dupuis transport network is used to solve the model. The results show that when the OD demand increases, the total travel time increases; when the construction budget increases, the total travel time decreases; when both supply and demand are uncertain, increasing the construction budget is more effective in reducing the total travel time ; Under different conditions, the maximum total walking time is 1.69 × 105 h, the minimum is 8.89 × 104 h; when the OD demand average is 350 veh.h-1, the construction budget increases from 10 million yuan to 15 million Yuan, and the supply is determined, the total walking time decreased 3.47%. The uncertainty of supply and demand has an important influence on the design of transportation network.