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理论上,房价的上涨会通过财富效应增加居民消费,但由于我国房地产市场发展尚不成熟,房价与消费之间的关系具有不确定性。本文根据总体房地产调控政策的取向考察房价波动对消费的影响,实证结果表明房价上涨对消费的拉动作用有限,甚至产生抑制效应。结合房价波动影响消费的传导机制,本文提出要增加中低档商品房和保障性住房的供给、发展住房增值贷款以及保持房地产调控政策的连贯性等政策建议。
In theory, rising house prices will increase residents’ consumption through the wealth effect. However, due to the immature development of China’s real estate market, the relationship between housing prices and consumption is uncertain. This article examines the impact of the fluctuation of housing prices on consumption according to the general regulation of real estate control policies. The empirical results show that the rising of housing prices has a limited stimulating effect on consumption and even has an inhibitory effect. Combined with the conduction mechanism of house price fluctuations affecting consumption, this paper puts forward policy recommendations such as increasing the supply of middle and low-grade commercial housing and affordable housing, developing value-added loans to housing and maintaining the continuity of real estate regulatory policies.