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目的:为控制社会医疗保险费用的过快增长提供建议。方法:基于1995～2008年的相关数据,运用主成分综合模型和灰色关联分析对影响我国社会医疗保险费用增长的因素进行研究。结果:由主成分综合模型可知我国社会医疗保险费用支出逐年递增且增长幅度越来越大,由灰色关联分析可知医保支出的影响因素中政府预算卫生支出、参保人数、城镇居民可支配收入和医院床位数等4个指标较其他指标与医保支出的关联性更强。结论:继续加强对我国医疗服务的监督和管理,依据影响因素与医保支出的关联性提出控制社会医保费用支出过快增长的建议。
Objective: To provide suggestions for controlling the excessive growth of social medical insurance costs. Methods: Based on the data from 1995 to 2008, this paper studied the factors that affect the growth of social medical insurance in China by using the principal component model and gray relational analysis. Results: According to the integrated model of principal components, we can see that the expenditures of social medical insurance in our country increase year by year and increase more and more. From the gray relational analysis we can see that among the influencing factors of medical insurance expenditures, the government budget health expenditure, the number of insured persons, the disposable income of urban residents and Hospital beds and other four indicators more than other indicators and health care expenditures more strongly. Conclusion: We will continue to strengthen the supervision and management of medical services in our country and put forward the proposal of controlling the excessive growth of social medical insurance expenditures based on the correlation between the influencing factors and medical expenditure.