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以渭干河流域水系中的库车河兰干站、渭干河黑孜水库站、渭干河千佛洞(合成)水库站为例,对R/S和Mann-Kendall法用于水文时间序列存在的不足进行了讨论,提出了将这两种方法相结合来分析水文时间序列的变化趋势。结果表明:库车河兰干站、渭干河黑孜水库站、渭干河千佛洞(合成)水库站赫斯特指数00,未来径流量呈显著下降趋势,渭-库绿洲的自然和人为因素对该地区的生态水文产生一定影响。
Taking the Kuqa Helan dry station, the Weihehehezi reservoir station and the Weiganhe Qianfudong (synthetic) reservoir station in the Weigan River basin as an example, the R / S and Mann-Kendall methods were used for hydrological time The existence of the sequence is discussed. The combination of these two methods is proposed to analyze the trend of hydrological time series. The results show that the Hurst Index 0 0 at Kuqian Helan dry station, Weigan river Heze reservoir station and Weigan river (synthetic) reservoir station show significant future runoff The natural and man-made factors of the Wei-Qushi oasis have an impact on the eco-hydrology of the area.