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中国股票市场为何在相当长一段时间内有着过度投机的行为?本文试图从中国市场化改革背景下的政治逻辑来解释这一经济现象。我国政府出于为国企解困的考虑和缓解过度市场化对社会造成的损害这一目的,将工业化负担转移到了股票市场。这样导致的是中国股票市场从整体上缺乏可投资性,进而带来过度投机。市场化的改革方案忽略了股票市场建立的政治逻辑,进而是不对路的。为了中国政治经济改革的顺利进行,中国政府对股票市场的介入会是持续的。应着眼于未来一段时间中国经济增长的增量来稀释这部分工业化负担。
Why China’s stock market has over-speculative behavior for a long period of time? This article attempts to explain this economic phenomenon from the political logic in the context of China’s market-based reform. The government of our country has shifted the burden of industrialization onto the stock market for the purpose of resolving the difficulties of state-owned enterprises and alleviating the harm done to society by excessive marketization. This has led to the overall lack of investability in China’s stock market, which in turn has led to excessive speculation. The market-oriented reform program ignores the political logic established by the stock market, which in turn is wrong. In order for China’s political and economic reform to proceed smoothly, the Chinese government’s intervention in the stock market will continue. The industrialization burden should be diluted in the light of the incremental economic growth in China in the coming period.