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所谓“经济周期”是指描述经济运行的主要指标随时间推移而出现规律性的变化。本世纪初,美国的部分经济学家和统计学家在研究美国经济增长的历史数据时发现了某些经济指标的周期变化规律,并对其进行了较深入的研究。主要是试图找出经济指标发生周期变化的内部机理及不同的指标周期变化之间的联系,并试图以此为基础,对经济指标未来发展变化的走势进行预测,作为调控经济的依据之一。经济运行中一般有以下五种典型的周期,它们的组合可
The so-called “economic cycle ” refers to the description of the main indicators of economic operation over time and regular changes. At the beginning of this century, some economists and statisticians in the United States found the regularity of the periodic changes of certain economic indicators while studying the historical data of the economic growth in the United States and conducted a more in-depth study on them. It mainly attempts to find out the internal mechanism of the periodic change of economic indicators and the relationship between different periodic changes of indicators, and tries to forecast the trend of economic indicators’ future development and change as one of the bases of economic regulation. Economic operation generally have the following five typical cycles, their combination can be