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经营管理者们很难对众多关键变量之间的影响关系做出准确判断,从而无法实现有效决策.为此,提出一种估算影响程度的方法.运用系统动力学原理建立企业的数学模型,即带时滞的一阶微分方程组(包含常参数、变参数和状态变量).基于灵敏度理论估计常参数和变参数扰动对状态变量的影响程度,并给出其在企业经营过程中的应用,包括扰动解的外推和参数间重要性的比较.以东城食糖经营公司为例进行分析研究,验证所提方法的可行性.
Therefore, it is difficult for managers to make accurate judgments on the impact of many key variables and thus can not make effective decisions.Therefore, a method to estimate the impact degree is proposed.Using the principles of system dynamics to establish the mathematical model of enterprises, that is First-order differential equations with time-delay (including constant parameters, variable parameters and state variables). Based on sensitivity theory, the influence of constant parameters and variable parameters on state variables is estimated and its application in business process is given. Including the extrapolation of perturbation solution and the comparison of the importance between the parameters.Taking Dongcheng sugar company as an example, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified.