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【目的】旅游交通是旅游业碳排放最大的来源。确定影响旅游交通碳排放增长的主要因素,可为中国旅游产业制定低碳发展路径提供科学依据基础。【方法】结合分解分析法以及突变分析方法,分析了导致重庆武隆世界遗产地旅游交通碳排放量增加的驱动因素。【结果】分解分析揭示了旅游产业规模效应和交通结构是导致遗产地碳排放量增长的主要因素,而距离因素和排放因子则是导致碳排放量减少的主要因素。对突变前发生事件的综合分析表明旅游目的地品牌的提升、产品结构的调整以及管理体制和机制的转变是影响旅游地交通碳排放变化的重要潜在因素。【结论】研究结果表明,结合分解方法的突变检验方法可用于揭示一些影响旅游产业碳排放潜在的关键因素。
【Objective】 Tourism traffic is the largest source of carbon emissions in tourism. Identifying the major factors that affect the growth of tourism transport carbon emissions can provide a scientific basis for China’s tourism industry to formulate a low carbon development path. 【Method】 Combining with decomposition analysis and mutation analysis, the driving factors that led to the increase of tourism transportation carbon emissions in Wulong World Heritage Site in Chongqing were analyzed. 【Result】 Decomposition analysis revealed that the scale effect and traffic structure of tourism industry are the main factors that lead to the increase of carbon emissions in heritage sites. Distance and emission factors are the main factors leading to the decrease of carbon emissions. The comprehensive analysis of the events before the mutation shows that the improvement of tourism destination brand, the adjustment of product structure and the change of management system and mechanism are the important potential factors that affect the change of transportation carbon emissions in tourist destinations. 【Conclusion】 The results show that the method of mutation detection combined with decomposition method can be used to reveal some of the key factors that affect the potential of carbon emissions in tourism industry.