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本文采用事件窗口分析方法,研究美国近7次经济衰退与主要发达国家、亚洲四小龙的关系。发现美国经济衰退的国际相关性是动态变化的,其中1973年、1980年和2001年是国际相关性最高的3次衰退;新一轮经济周期当中东亚四小龙金融变量与美国高度相关,超过了实体经济变量与美国的相关性。此外,本文还分析了美国与其他国家或地区经济衰退的领先、滞后关系。
This article uses an event window analysis method to study the relationship between the economic recession in the United States and the four major dragons in major developed countries and Asia in the past seven years. Found that the international relativity of the U.S. economic recession is changing dynamically. Among them, 1973 and 1980 were the three most relevant international recessions in 2001. The four East Asian financial variables in the new round of economic cycle are highly correlated with the United States, surpassing The Correlation between the Real Economic Variables and the United States. In addition, this article also analyzes the leading and lagging relations between the United States and other countries or regions in economic recession.