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以黑河干流出山口径流控制站莺落峡水文站1960-2004年45年的径流序列为基础数据,采用相关分析、交叉谱分析、统计规律分析、降水—径流双累积曲线法等研究了全球变化、太阳黑子活动、ENSO循环和下垫面变化对黑河干流出山径流变化的影响。结果表明:①全球变化对莺落峡站径流变化影响较大;②莺落峡站年径流与太阳黑子相对数两序列在2年和3.3年两个振动周期上存在显著的相关关系,但在这两个存在显著相关关系的振动周期上太阳黑子相对数的周期波动变化都落后于莺落峡站年径流的周期波动变化;③ENSO循环对莺落峡站年径流变化有一定的影响,但是,ElNino事件和LaNina事件对莺落峡站年径流的影响时间持续较短,对事件发生当年的径流变化影响较大,对事件发生次年的径流变化影响较小;④流域下垫面变化对莺落峡站年径流量的变化影响较小。
Based on the runoff series of Yingluoxia Hydrological Station from 1960 to 2004, which is the outlet flow control station of the Heihe River mainstream, the correlation analysis, crossover spectrum analysis, statistical law analysis and precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method were used to study the global changes , Sunspot activity, ENSO cycle and underlying surface changes on runoff changes in the main stream of Heihe River. The results showed that: (1) The global changes had a significant impact on the runoff variation at the Yingluoxia Gorge Station; (2) There was a significant correlation between the annual runoff and the relative numbers of two pairs of solar sunspots at two years and 3.3 years in Yingluoxia Station, The periodic fluctuations of the relative numbers of the sunspots in the vibrational cycles which have a significant correlation are lagging behind the fluctuations in the annual runoff of the Yingluoxia Gorge Station. (3) The ENSO cycle has a certain impact on the annual runoff changes of the Yingluoxia Gorge Station. However, The impacts of El Niño events and LaNina events on the annual runoff in Yingluoxia Gorge Station were relatively short, which had a significant impact on the runoff change in the year of occurrence and less on the runoff change in the following year. (4) The change of annual runoff of Lost Gorge station has little effect.