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证券欺诈行为聚集是常见的现象。不诚实公司对欺诈被发现的预期是欺诈行为形成的关键因素。本文通过建立相关的预期模型,分析证券欺诈的发生概率与监管效率的动态关系,发现欺诈行为的聚集现象是证券市场的内生规律。进一步实证检验国内的相关数据,得到了与理论分析一致的结论。我国证券市场的欺诈行为主要聚集在1996年,占总案件数量的40.5％,而欺诈案件查处则聚集在2000年,要比欺诈聚集期晚4年,证明案件查处时间过晚是导致欺诈行为聚集效应显著的主要原因。
Securities fraud is a common phenomenon. The dishonest company’s expectation of fraud being discovered is a key factor in the formation of fraud. By establishing the related expectation model, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between the probability of securities fraud and the efficiency of supervision, and finds that the aggregation of fraud is the endogenous law of securities market. Further empirical test of domestic data, obtained with the theoretical analysis of the conclusions. Fraud in China’s securities market was mainly concentrated in 1996, accounting for 40.5% of the total number of cases, while fraud cases were investigated and dealt with in 2000, four years later than the fraudulent gathering, proving that the investigation of the case was too late resulted in the aggregation of fraudulent acts The main reason for the significant effect.