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我国实施积极的财政政策已取得明显成效。但是,随着财政负债规模的迅速扩大,财政债务风险也逐渐加大。应采取何种政策和措施规避和化解财政债务风险,以维持经济的增长和就业的增加,是当前急需研究的问题。近年来,我国经济理论界和实际工作部门关于财政债务风险的理论和实证研究很多,主要涉及这样几个问题:一是如何估计我国财政债务风险的大小;二是在现实的财政风险状态下,积极财政政策是否应该淡出;三是如何防范和化解财政债务风险。本文拟就上述三个方面作一些探讨。
The active fiscal policy in our country has achieved remarkable results. However, with the rapid expansion of fiscal liabilities, the fiscal debt risks have also gradually increased. What kind of policies and measures should be taken to evade and resolve the financial debt risks so as to maintain economic growth and employment growth is an issue that urgently needs research. In recent years, there are many theoretical and empirical studies on the financial debt risk in China’s economic theory field and practical work departments. These issues are mainly related to the following questions: First, how to estimate the size of China’s financial debt risk; second, under the actual state of financial risk, Whether the active fiscal policy should fade out; Third, how to prevent and resolve the financial debt risk. This article intends to make some discussions on the above three aspects.