论文部分内容阅读
研究目标:探索中等收入经济体转型概率一般特征及转型动力因素。研究方法:基于K-M估计量估计中等收入阶段停留时间和转型概率,采用生存模型探讨中等收入转型的动力因素。研究发现:中等收入经济体在中等收入阶段的平均停留时间为38年,转型概率呈双峰型分布,即前25年逐年上升,其间的25~40年间下降,40年后提高。人力资本、技术进步和出口结构对中等收入转型概率有显著影响,尤其是中等人力资本。一个经济体从中低收入向中高收入阶段转变过程中,技术进步的重要性逐渐提高,人力资本和出口结构的重要性逐渐减弱。此外,1950~1985年间中等收入转型主要依赖人力资本和技术进步,1985~2015年间中等收入转型主要依赖技术进步和出口结构的专业化。研究创新:首次基于转型概率视角概括中等收入转型一般规律,使用生存分析研究不同时期和不同阶段中等收入转型的动力因素,并区分各因素的相对重要性。研究价值:拓展中等收入转型研究视角,延伸生存分析方法适用范围,研究结论对丰富中等收入阶段的经济学分析具有重要的学术价值和对中等收入国家制定转型战略具有重要的现实意义。
Research Objectives: To explore the general characteristics of transition probabilities and the dynamics of transition in middle-income economies. Research Methods: Based on K-M estimates to estimate the residence time and transition probability in the middle-income stage, the survival model is used to explore the dynamic factors of middle-income transformation. The study finds that middle-income economies have an average residence time of 38 years in the middle-income stage, and the transition probability presents a bimodal distribution, that is, the number of middle-income economies has risen year by year in the first 25 years, decreasing between 25 and 40 years and increasing after 40 years. Human capital, technological progress and export structure have a significant impact on the probability of medium-income transition, especially in medium-sized human capital. As an economy shifts from low to middle incomes, the importance of technological progress is gradually enhanced, and the importance of human capital and export structures is gradually diminishing. In addition, the transition from middle income in 1950-1985 mainly relied on human capital and technological progress. From 1985 to 2015, the middle-income transition relied mainly on the specialization of technological progress and export structure. Research and Innovation: For the first time, we generalize the general law of middle-income transition based on transition probability perspective, and use survival analysis to study the dynamic factors of middle-income transition in different periods and different stages and distinguish the relative importance of each factor. Research Value: Expanding from the perspective of research on middle-income transformation and extending the scope of application of survival analysis methods, the conclusions of the study have important academic value for enriching the economic analysis of middle-income stage and are of great practical significance for formulating the transformation strategy for middle-income countries.