本文以80个国家2009—2016年的数据为对象,通过运用面板随机效应模型,研究了影响主权信用评级的长期和短期因素。结果表明一国的经济增长率、通胀率和失业率等宏观基本面因素对评级具有长期影响力,而政府收支和对外债务对评级具有短期影响力。进一步,对我国的主权评级进行了拟合和预测,结果表明我国在2011年以前存在低估1个级别,而在2012—2016年却存在高估1—2个级别。本文建议政府要重视和警惕主权评级所蕴含的潜在风险,未雨绸缪,从改善经济运行的总体质量上来夯实国家的整体偿债能力。 In this paper, the data of 80 countries from 2009 to 2016 are taken as the target. By using the panel random effects model, the long-term and short-term factors that affect the sovereign credit rating are studied. The results show that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as economic growth, inflation and unemployment in a country, have a long-term impact on ratings, while government revenues and expenditures and external debt have a short-term impact on ratings. Further, fitting and forecasting the sovereignty rating of our country shows that there is an underestimation of 1 level in our country before 2011, and over 1-2 levels in 2012-2016. This paper suggests that the government should pay attention to and be vigilant to the potential risks inherent in the sovereign rating, take precautions, and improve the overall quality of economic operations to consolidate the country’s overall solvency.