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厚松散层底部含水层单位涌水量、厚松散层底部黏土层厚度、覆岩厚度、导水断裂带高度和采高5个因素为影响薄基岩厚松散含水层下采煤安全性的关键因素。将关键因素进行处理分析,找到关键因素影响开采安全性的4个联结点,即底部含水层单位涌水量、覆岩厚度与采高平方根之比、底部黏土层层厚与采高之比、导水断裂带高度与采高平方根之比4个评价因子。将评价因子划分为5个等级,进而量化开采安全性。引入信息熵和未确知测度理论,建立综合评价模型,以某矿105个钻孔数据为例,进行开采安全性评价,并根据评价结果对可安全开采区域进行划定和预测。将评价、划定和预测结果,同工程实践及已有研究结果进行对比,发现吻合度较高。结果表明,在所研究的煤层赋存条件下未确知测度模型是可行的、有效的。
Five factors that affect the safety of coal mining under thick loose aquifers, such as the inflow of water from the bottom aquifer, the thickness of clay layer at the bottom of thick alluvium, the thickness of overburden rock, the height of aqueduct and fracture height, and mining height . The key factors for processing and analysis to find the key factors affecting the mining safety of the four junctions, namely the bottom of the aquifer water inflow, overburden thickness and mining height square root ratio, bottom clay layer thickness and mining height ratio, guide Water fracture zone height and mining height square root ratio of four evaluation factors. The evaluation factor is divided into five levels, and then quantitative mining safety. The theory of information entropy and unascertained measure is introduced to establish a comprehensive evaluation model. Taking the drilling data of 105 mines in a mine as an example, the mining safety evaluation is carried out and the safe mining area is delineated and predicted according to the evaluation results. The evaluation, delineation and forecast results, with the engineering practice and the results of existing studies were compared and found that a high degree of agreement. The results show that the unascertained measurement model is feasible and effective under the conditions of coal seams studied.