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目的:建立侵袭性牙周炎(aggressive periodontitis,AgP)患者牙周治疗后远期失牙的预测模型。方法:回顾分析85名在北京大学口腔医院牙周科完成牙周治疗并相继于3至11年后复查的AgP患者。获取患者的一般信息、牙周检查数据和影像学资料,用Logistic回归筛选牙周治疗后远期失牙的相关因素,建立预测模型,用受试者工作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线分析预测效力。结果:在积极牙周治疗后的随访期内,85名受试者中有22人失牙,共计55颗。纳入Logistic回归方程的失牙相关危险因素包括初始骨吸收多、根形态异常牙多、探诊出血严重的位点多以及不定期的牙周维护。ROC曲线分析显示预测的敏感性和特异性可同时接近80%。结论:建立的侵袭性牙周炎患者治疗后失牙的预测模型对临床有参考意义。
Objective: To establish a predictive model of long-term tooth loss after periodontal treatment in patients with aggressive periodontitis (AgP). Methods: A total of 85 patients with AgP who completed periodontal treatment at the Department of Periodontology, Peking University Stomatology Hospital and were reviewed after 3 to 11 years were retrospectively analyzed. General information, periodontal examination data and imaging data were obtained. Logistic regression was used to screen the related factors of long-term tooth loss after periodontal treatment. The predictive model was established and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis Predict efficacy. Results: During the follow-up period after aggressive periodontal treatment, 22 out of 85 subjects lost teeth, a total of 55. The risk factors associated with tooth loss included in the logistic regression equation include initial bone resorption, abnormal root morphology, severe site probing, and occasional periodontal maintenance. ROC curve analysis shows that the predicted sensitivity and specificity can approach 80% at the same time. Conclusion: The established prediction model of tooth loss in patients with aggressive periodontitis has clinical significance.