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森林火灾火险预报模型是林火预防的主要技术手段,目前国内的火险预报模型主要针对东北林区构建,而作为全国第二大林区的西南林区迫切需要在本区域选用和构建预报效果较好的火险预报模型。本研究收集整理了国内目前主流的火险预报模型,并利用麒麟区防火办辖区内2013-2015年的实际林火资料对这些模型进行了试报,根据测报结果进行模型评价研究。研究结果表明,“全国森林火险天气等级”适用于西南林区的森林火险预报。本研究结果还可为构建该区域的本土火险预报模型提供参考。
At present, the model of fire danger forecast in China mainly aims at the construction of the forest region in Northeast China. However, as the second largest forest region in the country, there is an urgent need to select and construct forecasting results in this region The fire insurance forecast model. This study collected and compiled the current mainstream fire risk prediction model in China and tested the models by using the actual forest fire information in the area of Qilin Fire Prevention Office from 2013 to 2015. The model evaluation study was carried out based on the results of the survey. The results show that “the national forest fire weather rating” is suitable for forest fire forecast in the southwest forest area. The results of this study may also provide a reference for constructing a local model for predicting fire hazards in this area.