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以栾川县2010年7月24日暴雨泥石流为研究对象,对单沟泥石流进行预警研究。在参考前人研究成果及野外调查分析的基础上,结合栾川县降雨资料分析结果,选取前5d间接雨量、24h最大降雨量、1h最大降雨量、松散物质储量、山坡坡度、沟床比降、沟床弯曲系数、补给长度比和植被覆盖率9个指标,建立了基于地质背景条件与降雨因素相耦合的泥石流预警模型。采用三标度AHP法对相关因子进行赋权,采用功效系数法确定预警因子的单项功效系数,并加权求和确定总功效系数,根据总功效系数与泥石流预警等级的对应关系,对研究区单沟泥石流进行预警。预警结果基本符合“7.24”特大暴雨下的泥石流历史灾害发生规律,表明此预警模型是合理的,适用于对栾川地区泥石流预警。
Taking the rainstorm debris flow of Luanchuan County on July 24, 2010 as the research object, the early warning research on the single gully debris flow was conducted. Based on the previous research results and field investigation and analysis, combined with the rainfall data analysis results of Luanchuan County, the rainfalls of the first 5 days, the maximum rainfall of 24 hours, the maximum rainfall of 1 hour, the storage of loose material, the slope of slope, , The ditch bed bending coefficient, the length ratio of supply and the vegetation coverage rate, a debris flow warning model based on geological background conditions and rainfall factors was established. The three-scale AHP method is used to empower the relevant factors. The coefficient of effect coefficient is used to determine the individual coefficient of effectiveness of the early-warning factor. The weighted sum is used to determine the total coefficient of effectiveness. According to the corresponding relationship between the total coefficient of effectiveness and debris flow warning level, Gully debris flow warning. The result of early warning basically accords with the law of historical disaster of debris flow under “7.24 ” heavy rainstorm, indicating that this early warning model is reasonable and suitable for early warning of debris flow in Luanchuan area.