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研究目标:回答增加值率能否反映经济增长质量的问题。研究方法:通过建立CES型总产出生产函数和动态经济系统,从理论上提出增加值率门槛上限,并实证检验了中国增加值率的国际比较及省际比较。研究发现:增加值率存在着一个门槛上限,当低于该值时,实际增加值率越高表示增长质量越好,而超出时则完全相反;实际增加值率与门槛上限之间存在着长期的协整关系,且与全要素生产率之间存在着倒U形关系;增加值率门槛上限与资本折旧率、人口增长率和储蓄率等宏观经济指标相关。研究创新:采用增加值率评价经济增长质量,应该考虑增加值率门槛上限。研究价值:有助于《工业转型升级规划(2011~2015年)》和《中国制造2025》中以增加值率评价质量效益工作合理实施。
Research Objectives: To answer the question whether value added rate can reflect the quality of economic growth. Research methods: By setting up CES-type total output production function and dynamic economic system, the upper threshold of value-added rate is put forward theoretically and the international comparison and inter-province comparison of value-added rate of China are empirically tested. The study found that: there is a threshold value-added rate limit, below which the higher the actual value-added rate, the better the quality of the growth, while the exact opposite is exceeded; there is a long-term between the actual value-added rate and the upper threshold And there is an inverted U-shaped relationship with total factor productivity. The upper threshold of value-added rate is related to macroeconomic indicators such as capital depreciation rate, population growth rate and saving rate. Research innovation: The value-added rate of economic growth to evaluate the quality, the value-added rate threshold should be considered. Research Value: It is helpful to carry out the work of appraising quality and efficiency with value added rate in “Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Plan (2011-2015)” and “Made in China 2025”.