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近十几年来,主权财富基金迅速崛起,其规模急剧扩大,现已成为国际金融市场上重要的机构投资者之一,对全球金融市场的影响与日俱增,该问题已引起各国政府和学界的广泛关注。本文通过情景分析法预测了主权财富基金的未来发展规模,并通过改进的Barro模型探讨分析了主权财富基金对全球金融市场以及稳定性的影响,涉及资产价格、股票风险溢价和金融市场市盈率受主权财富基金风险偏好的影响。本文结论显示:全球金融市场受主权财富基金的影响并不显著,主权财富基金的迅速崛起对全球金融市场具有稳定作用。中国政府可以考虑增加主权财富基金规模,以更好地支持国家“一带一路”发展战略。
Over the past decade or so, the rapid rise of sovereign wealth funds and their dramatic expansion in size have now become one of the major institutional investors in the international financial markets and their impact on global financial markets has been steadily increasing. This issue has drawn the widespread concern of governments and academic circles in various countries . In this paper, we predict the future development of sovereign wealth funds through scenario analysis, and analyze the impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets and stability through the improved Barro model, involving asset prices, stock risk premiums and the financial market price-earnings ratio The impact of wealth funds risk appetite. The conclusion of this paper shows that the global financial market is not significantly affected by sovereign wealth funds, and the rapid rise of sovereign wealth funds has a stabilizing effect on global financial markets. The Chinese government may consider increasing the size of its sovereign wealth funds to better support its development strategy of the “Belt and a Road”.