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为实现调度区域内货物列车出发计划的全局最优,提出1种基于车流不确定性的动态优化方法。影响货物列车出发计划的不确定性因素主要有事故、晚点、扣修等,将其中不确定性因素进行量化处理,并当作随机变量。以调度区域内货车中转停留时间最小为目标函数,以网络车流平衡、节点车流守恒、满轴限制、运到期限作为基本约束条件,以计划兑现率要求作为动态约束条件,建立制定列车出发计划的动态优化模型。利用确定性等价类将模型转化为确定性线性规划模型,采用编制的线性规划软件求解。通过算例证明该方法可以得到优化结果。分析计算结果可知:车流的不确定性会导致中时增大;计划兑现率要求越高,计划最后的执行指标就越差;考虑运到期限要求,会导致中时增大。
In order to realize the global optimization of departure plan of freight train in dispatch area, a dynamic optimization method based on traffic flow uncertainty is proposed. The main factors that affect the departure schedule of cargo trains are accidents, late arrivals, deductions, etc. The uncertainties are quantified and treated as random variables. Taking the minimum transit time of freight trains in the dispatch area as the objective function, the paper takes the network traffic flow equilibrium, node flow conservation, full axis limitation and deadline as the basic constraints and the planned cash rate requirements as the dynamic constraints to establish the train departure plan Dynamic optimization model. The deterministic equivalence class is used to transform the model into a deterministic linear programming model. The linear programming model is used to solve the model. An example shows that the method can get the optimized result. The results of the analysis and calculation show that: the uncertainty of traffic flow will lead to the increase of mid-hour; the higher the requirement of plan realization rate, the worse the final execution plan of the plan will be;