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近年来,在土地、税收、金融等多重政策的叠加影响下,我国房地产企业交易量严重下滑,出现资金回流受阻、偿付能力受限等问题,使房地产市场面临的信用风险和成长的不确定性加剧。本文以35家沪深股市房地产上市公司为样本,对其进行生命周期的划分,根据2011-2015年的财务指标、宏观经济指标等建立信用风险评价模型,就其信用风险进行实证分析。得出的结论是:在处于不同生命周期的企业面临的信用风险不同,其信用风险的主要影响因素也不同。
In recent years, with the superimposition of multiple policies such as land, taxation and finance, the real estate business in our country has suffered a serious decline in transaction volume, hindered the return of funds and limited solvency, which has caused the real estate market’s credit risk and growth uncertainty Exacerbated. In this paper, 35 Shanghai-Shenzhen stock market real estate listed companies as a sample, the life cycle of its division, according to the financial indicators from 2011-2015, macroeconomic indicators such as the establishment of credit risk evaluation model to conduct an empirical analysis of its credit risk. The conclusion drawn is that the main factors that affect the credit risk of enterprises under different life cycles are different credit risk.