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为保障铁路危险货物专用线安全运行,利用基于粗糙集-突变理论的风险评价方法对铁路危险货物专用线进行风险分析。在构建系统的评价指标体系基础上,利用粗糙集方法计算指标权重,再用突变评价法逐级计算,得到系统最终突变值,以突变值反映系统风险的相对高低。基于北京铁路局管内10条危险货物专用线综合分析报告内容,利用该评价方法对这10条专用线进行风险评价。实例分析表明,综合分析报告所描述的问题较多的专用线,其突变值也较低,风险相对较高,评价结果基本符合实际情况。
In order to ensure the safe operation of the railway dedicated line of dangerous goods, a risk analysis method based on rough set - catastrophe theory is used to analyze the risk of railway dangerous goods. On the basis of constructing the evaluation index system of the system, the rough set method is used to calculate the weight of the index, and then the sudden change method is used to compute the final mutation value. The mutation value reflects the relative risk of the system. Based on the contents of the comprehensive analysis report of 10 special dangerous goods lines in the tube of Beijing Railway Administration, the risk assessment of these 10 special lines is conducted by using this evaluation method. The case study shows that the special lines with more problems described in the comprehensive analysis report have lower mutation value and higher risk, and the evaluation results are basically in line with the actual situation.