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针对现行地源热泵竖直地埋管管长计算可靠性分析中仅对特定随机变量变化引起管长变化的问题,提出在Excel环境下,采用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟法,研究各随机变量同时变化时埋管长度的变化程度,通过成千上万次模拟运算,得到大量的管长样本,再通过SPSS软件进行统计特征分析,得到地源热泵竖直地埋管管长的概率分布。结合工程实例计算,与确定性设计方法进行对比分析,根据系统所要求不同的保证率,可得到不同的计算管长,为地埋管的可靠性分析提供一定的参考。
Aiming at the problem that the change of pipe length caused by the change of specific random variables in the reliability analysis of the vertical buried pipe length of the current ground source heat pump, Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed to study the randomness Through the thousands of simulations, a large number of pipe length samples were obtained, and then statistical characteristics were analyzed by SPSS software to get the probability distribution of vertical buried pipe length of the ground source heat pump . According to the comparison between engineering example calculation and deterministic design method, different calculation pipe lengths can be obtained according to the different guaranteed rates required by the system, providing some references for the reliability analysis of buried pipe.