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文章运用2008~2014年19个国家面板数据对国产玉米与进口玉米之间的阿明顿(Armington)弹性进行测算,结果表明我国与国际玉米间的品质依赖度较低、同质性较高、具有较高的替代性,因而在价格劣势的驱动下我国进口动机强烈。在此基础上,分析了我国玉米的主要进口来源,发现美国玉米的出口产出弹性常年小于1;前苏联国家则大于1并呈上升趋势,供给潜力较大;其他出口国大部分大于1,但占我国进口比重较小。提出的对策建议是,为保障我国玉米供给安全,应拓宽玉米进口来源,充分发挥与“一带一路”国家间贸易的潜力;调整玉米产业布局,推动玉米主产区规模化集约经营,降低生产成本,提高产品的国际竞争力。
The article estimates the Armington elasticity between domestic corn and imported corn using panel data of 19 countries from 2008 to 2014. The results show that the quality dependence between China and international corn is low and the homogeneity is high, With a higher alternative, and therefore driven by the price disadvantage of China’s import motivation. On this basis, we analyzed the main sources of corn imports in China and found that the output elasticity of US corn was less than 1 year-on-year; that in the former Soviet Union countries was greater than 1 and showed an upward trend with great potential for supply; most of the other exporting countries were above 1, But accounting for a relatively small proportion of China’s imports. Proposed countermeasures and suggestions are as follows: In order to ensure the safety of China’s maize supply, we should broaden the sources of maize imports, bring into full play the potential of trade with other countries along the Belt and Road, and adjust the maize industry layout to promote the large- Production costs, improve the international competitiveness of products.