微型计算机等电子设备在铁路运输业特别是机车车辆上的应用日益广泛。本文介绍了通过系统可靠性理论来预测电子设备老化寿命的方法。现用的电子设备老化寿命预测采用美国军用标准规定的方法，但这种方法只能确定电子设备的平均故障率值。本研究在此基础上使其向依存于时间（应力积累量）的方向扩展，提出了扩展的寿命预测模型，并针对所使用参数的不确定性，应用了“不确定性”概念，通过与不确定性的相关性统计概率计算，可以获得最差条件下的“留有余地”的预测结果。 Microcomputers and other electronic equipment in the railway industry, especially locomotives, the growing use of vehicles. This article describes how to predict the aging life of electronic equipment by using system reliability theory. The current life expectancy of electronic devices uses the method specified by U.S. military standards, but this method only determines the average failure rate of electronic devices. On the basis of this, the research expands it to the direction of time dependent (stress accumulation), proposes an extended life prediction model, and applies the concept of “uncertainty” to the uncertainty of the parameters used, Correlation of Uncertainty Statistics Probability calculations yield the “left-behind” predictions for the worst-case conditions.