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基于已有研究和中国经济现实,本文归纳出提高产出效率和促进公平分配两种政策变迁模式,在此理论基点上,选择出最能反映经济发展方式转型目标的可测量主要绩效指标,并基于1981—2008年省际面板数据构建动态模型,利用系统广义矩估计方法,测算出主要政策工具变量对绩效指标的边际影响系数。经过逻辑论证和经验检验,我们提出如下政策建议:(1)经济增长应与效率和收入同步增长;(2)实施产业适度均衡发展战略;(3)提高劳动者整体质量;(4)遵循经济与城市化的发展规律,防止经济与城市化运行中的扭曲问题,等等。此外,还得出如下政策启示:不同的政策目标需要协调统一在我国经济增长转型的长远规划框架下,不应该故意压低居民的收入水平以提高经济绩效;不同的政策变迁模式需要有不同的政策工具变量集相配套,但更需要观察一个政策对整个社会系统的综合影响,才能做出正确评价和最优选择。
Based on the existing research and the economic reality in China, this paper concludes two modes of policy changes: increasing output efficiency and promoting fair distribution. Based on this theoretical point, the paper chooses measurable key performance indicators that can best reflect the goal of economic development transformation Based on the provincial panel data from 1981 to 2008, a dynamic model was constructed and the system GMM method was used to calculate the marginal influence coefficient of the main policy instruments on performance indicators. After logical proof and empirical test, we put forward the following policy recommendations: (1) economic growth should be synchronized with efficiency and income growth; (2) the implementation of a moderate and balanced industrial development strategy; (3) the overall quality of workers; (4) And the law of development of urbanization, to prevent the distortion of economy and urbanization, and so on. In addition, the following policy implications have emerged: Different policy objectives need to be harmonized In the long-term planning framework for China’s economic growth transformation, we should not deliberately reduce the income level of residents to improve economic performance; different policy changes require different policies However, it is more necessary to observe the comprehensive impact of a policy on the entire social system in order to make the correct evaluation and optimal choice.