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依据巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应假说,一国经济追赶伴随的可贸易部门劳动生产率的“相对相对增长”会派生本币实际汇率升值趋势。本文对改革开放以来我国可贸易与不可贸易部门劳动生产率各自增长、相对增长、国际比较增长等指标进行系统估测,发现上述结构性生产率指标与人民币实际汇率之间的关系存在与巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应假说推论一致的经验证据;利用人均或劳均产出等总量性生产率指标检验这一理论对人民币实际汇率的解释力,则存在理论假说变量与度量指标选择不兼容的问题。
According to the Balassa Samuelson effect hypothesis, the “relative relative growth” of the labor productivity in the tradable sector that accompanies economic catch-up in a country will derive the real exchange rate appreciation of the local currency. This paper systematically estimates the individual productivity growth, relative growth and international comparative growth of China’s tradable and non-tradable sectors since the reform and opening up, and finds out the relationship between the above structural productivity index and the real exchange rate of Renminbi. Erson effect hypothesis corollary consistent empirical evidence; the use of per capita or labor productivity and other indicators of the total amount of productivity to test the theory of the real exchange rate of RMB interpretation, there is the theoretical hypothesis variables and the selection of metrics is not compatible with the problem.