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利用精河水文站1964年-2012年径流、降雨数据,采用M-K检验、累积曲线模型及交叉小波分析等方法,对艾比湖流域精河的径流、降水的变化特征及多时间尺度相关进行分析,并定量分析了降水变化对径流变化的贡献率。精河年径流量总体上径流呈增长趋势,但趋势不明显;降雨总体上呈增加趋势,且增加趋势明显。精河年径流量与降水量在多时间尺度上存在显著相关关系,且以正相关关系为主,显著相关区域集中在1986年-1991年在2~4a的周期带、1985年-1990年的7a周期带、2002年-2011年的4~5a周期带。分析认为,近50年来该流域降水变化对径流增加的贡献率平均为68.4%。
By using the runoff and rainfall data of Jinghe Hydrological Station from 1964 to 2012, using MK test, cumulative curve model and cross-wavelet analysis, the runoff and precipitation characteristics and multi-time scale correlation of Jinghe River in the Aibi Lake Basin were analyzed , And quantitatively analyzed the contribution rate of precipitation change to runoff change. The annual runoff of Jinghe River generally showed an increasing trend, but the trend was not obvious; the rainfall generally showed an increasing trend, and the increasing trend was obvious. There was a significant correlation between runoff and precipitation of Jinghe River on multiple timescales, and the positive correlation was the main one. The significant correlations were concentrated in the period of 2 ~ 4a from 1986 to 1991, and from 1985 to 1990 7a period band, 2002 - 2011 4 ~ 5a period band. According to the analysis, the contribution of the precipitation change in the past 50 years to the increase of runoff averaged 68.4%.