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对中国民航货运市场的特点和发展状况进行了对比分析,剖析出国民经济与民航货运的内在关系,分别建立了预测货邮运输量和周转量的回归模型,模型均通过了显著性检验,预测出了2005~2020年中国航空的货邮运输量和周转量。从预测结果可以看出未来15年中国航空货运将保持持续快速的增长势头,2020年航空货邮周转量将达到4.565×1010t.km,航空货邮运输量将达到1.5339×107t。这和中国民航体制改革的深入,特别是中国加入WTO、参与国际竞争与合作、对外经济贸易的增长等因素密不可分。
This paper makes a comparative analysis of the characteristics and development of China’s civil aviation freight market, analyzes the internal relations between the national economy and the civil aviation freight, and establishes the regression models for forecasting the freight volume and the turnover amount respectively. The models all pass the significant test and prediction Out of 2005 to 2020 China Air cargo shipping volume and turnover. The forecast results show that China’s air cargo will maintain a sustained and rapid growth in the next 15 years. By 2020, air cargo shipping volume will reach 4.565 × 1010t.km and air cargo traffic will reach 1.5339 × 107t. This is closely linked with the deepening of China’s civil aviation system reform, especially its accession to the WTO, its participation in international competition and cooperation, and the growth of its foreign trade and economic ties.